As mandatory SAF blending rules are taking effect in the EU, the UK, and Singapore, aviation decarbonization ismoving from voluntary commitments to rigid constraints. Global SAF demand is expected to exceed 18 million tons by 2030, leaving a supply gap of about 6.8 million tons. Plastics-to-SAF can help fill this gap. Over 400 million tons of waste plastic are produced each year, and pyrolysis oil costs only $500–$750 per ton. The route offers both scale and cost advantages. This report covers the market insights, technology routes, challenges, and future trends of plastic-based SAF.
Global aviation accounts for about 2%–3% of human-caused carbon emissions. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. SAF is currently the only decarbonization solution that can directly replace fossil jet fuel in existing aircraft engines and infrastructure, cutting life-cycle emissions by 50%–80%.
The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation took effect in January 2025, requiring fuel supplied at EU airports to contain at least 2% SAF. The UK has introduced a similar SAF mandate. Singapore will require 1% SAF for departing flights from 2026.
In 2025, global SAF production was about 1.9 million tonnes, only 0.6% of global jet fuel consumption. Based on policies and airline plans, global SAF demand will exceed 18 million tonnes by 2030, leaving a supply gap of 6.8 million tonnes. The supply side urgently needs breakthroughs in a wider range of technology pathways.
| Year | Policy & Market Milestones |
|---|---|
| 2025 | EU and UK 2% mandatory blend; global SAF output approx. 1.9 Mt |
| 2026 | Singapore 1% SAF target; global SAF output expected to reach 2.4 Mt |
| 2030 | EU 6% blend; global demand exceeds 18 Mt, gap approx. 6.8 Mt |
| 2040 | EU 34% blend, including a synthetic fuel sub-mandate |
| 2050 | EU 70% blend; aviation net-zero target |
Sources: IATA (updated December 2025); EU ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation (EU) 2023/2405; SkyNRG 2025 SAF Market Outlook
Global SAF Market Reaches $2.25 Billion in 2026 and Is Set to Exceed $17 Billion by 2035, a 25.2% CAGR
1.8
2025
2.25
2026
4.0
2028E
6.5
2030E
10.5
2032E
17.0
2035E
Sources: Market Research Future (August 2026); Evolvance Market Research; IATA (updated December 2025).
HEFA accounts for about 82% of global SAF capacity but is limited by feedstock supply. Upgrading plastic pyrolysis oil into SAF is the most promising emerging route. Its feedstock supply is almost unlimited, since global waste plastic exceeds 400 million tonnes a year. With its low production cost, pyrolysis oil is the only route that can address both plastic pollution and the SAF feedstock shortage.
| Route | Capacity share | Core feedstock | Maturity | Emission reduction | Main bottleneck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEFA | ~82% | Used cooking oil, animal fats | TRL 9 | 50%–80% | Limited feedstock supply |
| FT synthesis | ~7.5% | Biomass, municipal solid waste | TRL 6–7 | 70%–90% | High capital intensity |
| ATJ | ~5% | Ethanol, lignocellulose | TRL 6–7 | 60%–80% | Conversion efficiency needs improvement |
| PtL | <1% | Green electricity, CO₂, water | TRL 5–6 | Close to 100% | High cost of green electricity |
| Plastic pyrolysis oil | Emerging | Waste plastics (PE/PP/PS) | TRL 5–7 | 50%–70% | Certification and quality consistency |
HEFA = hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids; FT = Fischer–Tropsch; ATJ = alcohol-to-jet; PtL = power-to-liquid; TRL = technology readiness level.
| Process stage | Key parameters | Output / effect |
|---|---|---|
| Pyrolysis | Oxygen-free | Oil yield of 60%–92% |
| Fractional cutting | Cut by boiling point | Kerosene fraction (C10–C15) |
| Hydro-upgrading | H₂, pressure | Saturated hydrocarbons, impurities removed |
| Final product | Meets ASTM D7566 | Can be blended into jet fuel at up to 50% |
2%
2025
6%
2030
20%
2035
34%
2040
52%
2045
70%
2050
The EU has the most aggressive SAF policy and the most certain demand, but its domestic capacity falls short. The clear supply gap in 2025–2030 gives external suppliers, including Chinese plastic-based SAF producers, an opportunity to export.
| Emissions Reduction | Base Credit | With 45Z Bonus |
|---|---|---|
| ≥50% | $1.25/gal | $1.75/gal |
| ≥40% | $1.00/gal | $1.40/gal |
| ≥30% | $0.75/gal | $1.05/gal |
| ≥20% | $0.50/gal | $0.70/gal |
Driven by IRA tax credits, the U.S. is the world’s most active SAF investment market, but demand is largely voluntary and HEFA/ATJ-based. Plastics-based SAF can earn the highest credit, making it a key differentiator.
| Country/Region | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore | In effect | 1% SAF on all departing flights from 2026 |
| Japan | Under planning | Target of 10% SAF share by 2030 |
| South Korea | Under planning | Mandatory blending ratio legislation for 2030 in progress |
| India | Voluntary | 1% voluntary blending target from 2025 |
APAC SAF policy is just getting started, with Singapore the first to mandate. China has no national mandate yet, but offers three advantages: the largest waste plastic supply, leading pyrolysis equipment, and breakthrough atmospheric-pressure catalysis. Near term, it will focus on exports to Europe and voluntary domestic airline demand; once domestic policy lands, growth should surge.
Plastic-based SAF must pass ASTM D7566 and ISCC sustainability certification. The pyrolysis oil route is not yet part of the mainstream certification pathway. Carbon accounting methods are not unified. Mutual recognition of certificates is also a barrier in cross-border trade.
Waste plastics are a complex mix (PE/PP/PS/PVC). Chlorine and metal impurities vary widely. This makes pyrolysis oil quality unstable. It directly affects hydrotreating efficiency and final product consistency.
Pyrolysis oil is cheap. But after adding hydrotreating, certification and logistics costs, full-chain SAF still costs 2–3 times as much as fossil jet fuel. It relies on policy subsidies and carbon revenue to be economically viable.
SAF must be delivered through the existing jet fuel storage and transport system. But dedicated SAF facilities at airports are severely lacking. Infrastructure limits the blending ratio. Large-scale use faces a “last mile” bottleneck.
SAF policies are still changing in many countries, and subsidies may be phased out. At the same time, HEFA capacity is expanding fast, and PtL costs are expected to fall over time. This squeezes plastic-based SAF. It needs to build a distinct advantage before 2030.
Single-atom catalysts and non-precious metal systems greatly cut hydrogenation costs. Atmospheric-pressure processes reduce spending on high-pressure equipment.
Production is moving from 1-ton-per-day pilot tests to 100-ton-per-day continuous processing. Economies of scale significantly lower unit costs.
AI optimizes reaction parameters. This increases oil yield, improves product consistency, and lowers labor and energy costs.
By 2030, the full-chain cost of plastic-based SAF falls to within RMB 8,000 per tonne, approaching the level of fossil jet fuel plus carbon price.
Mandates are spreading from the EU and UK to Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia. Major aviation markets worldwide are expected to introduce mandatory policies by 2030.
Certification systems such as ISCC and RSB are gradually moving toward mutual recognition, and carbon accounting methodologies are converging, lowering barriers to cross-border trade.
The pyrolysis oil pathway is expected to be added to the ASTM D7566 annex, gaining certification status on par with HEFA.
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a nationwide SAF blending target and subsidy policy are expected to be introduced.
Energy majors, environmental companies, airlines, and plastic recycling firms form a four-way collaboration, binding the full chain from feedstock to end use.
More and more refineries use pyrolysis oil as feedstock, producing SAF with existing hydrotreating units and reducing investment in new capacity.
Airlines sign 10–15-year offtake agreements (OBA) with producers, locking in demand and price and reducing investment risk.
Airports, oil companies, and governments jointly invest in SAF storage and transport facilities, breaking the “last mile” bottleneck.
Plastic-based SAF turns a mounting waste problem into a low-carbon aviation fuel. Advances in pyrolysis equipment, falling catalytic costs, tightening mandates, and deeper cross-sector cooperation are moving the industry from pilot projects toward commercial scale. Early movers who secure feedstock, certification, and long-term offtake partners will be best positioned as global demand accelerates toward 2030.